Experiments · E111

Is the published reference we compared against itself biased high?

Yes. It is a mean-field estimate that runs about 1.3 times high; with our baseline fixed too, the factor of two shrinks to 1.04.

In the log: The reference is mean-field, and the published spread is a factor of three

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EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 6470–6515

E111 — The reference is mean-field, and the published spread is a factor of three

E108's "0.54 of the published scale on 74 of 75 compositions" was read as a defect in rung 1. Before repairing anything further, what the reference actually is.

LTVC is a mean-field treatment. ltvc_check.py says so in its own docstring - "an AFLOW cluster expansion under a mean-field treatment" - and mean field overestimates an order-disorder temperature by a known amount. For B2 ordering on bcc, which is the nearest-neighbour Ising model on a bipartite lattice with z = 8, Bragg-Williams gives k_B T_c = 8J against the Monte Carlo 6.354J: mean field runs 1.26 times high from the approximation alone.

That is not a textbook argument here, because somebody has measured it on this exact alloy. Huhn & Widom (JOM 65, 1772, 2013) computed both from the same Hamiltonian: mean field 1654 K, Monte Carlo 1280 K. The ratio is 0.774, against the 0.79 the lattice model predicts.

And the published first-principles values for MoNbTaW span a factor of 3.3:

study method T_c (K)
Huhn & Widom 2013 mean field 1654
Huhn & Widom 2013 Monte Carlo, same Hamiltonian 1280
Kim & Widom, PRM 7, 063803 (2023) replica-exchange MC 1110
Liu et al., arXiv 2011.00698 (2020) replica-exchange MC, EPI 870
Ruban, GPM + MC (via Körmann) static lattice ~750
Körmann & Sluiter, Entropy 18, 403 (2016) DFT unrelaxed + config. entropy 717
Widom et al. 2013 hybrid MC/MD "600-1200"
del Grosso et al. 2012 empirical 600-800
Körmann & Sluiter 2016 DFT relaxed 517

Two rows matter for us. Körmann's 717 K is the calculation whose approximations are ours - a static ideal lattice, no relaxation, configurational entropy only - and their relaxed number is 517 K, so relaxation costs 30 per cent of the ordering temperature. Our expansion is fitted to unrelaxed MACE on a fixed lattice, so it belongs against 717, not against 1110 and not against a mean-field 1654.

Their enthalpies line up with E109 too. Körmann's unrelaxed A2-B2 enthalpy is 42.8 meV/atom; E109 measured MACE at 50 and our expansion at 65 on the same quantity. Their two rows are exactly proportional - 717/517 = 1.387 against 42.8/30.9 = 1.385 - so in their treatment T_ord tracks the enthalpy linearly, which is the mean-field signature.

Consequence: E108's 0.54 is not one number about rung 1. It factorises into roughly 0.77 for the reference being mean-field and roughly 0.70 for everything else, and that 0.70 sits inside a published spread that is itself 3.3 wide. The task "fix rung 1's factor-of-two scale error" was chasing a defect that is at most partly ours.

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