Can the ordering rung see an alloy splitting into two phases, not only ordering?
Partly. It rejects the separating alloy and sees its atoms cluster, but it read the temperature 30 % low (349 K for an exact 500 K), because the size factor was calibrated on ordering.
In the log: E255 — the review's experiments: one per open question, parameters fixed (registered 2026-09-27 22:50)
mixedDate 2026-09-27 22:50, as written in the logrung 1 · ordering0 predictions · 1 result paragraphEXPERIMENTS.md lines 17327–17333, lines 17335–17343, lines 17417–17429
Pre-registration
The pre-registration, as written
E248 — Can rung 1 see decomposition, not only ordering? (J2: "two bcc solutions with different
compositions"; rung 1 has only ever been tested on ordering.)
Model: exact bcc Ising, 50/50, with J < 0, so like neighbours attract and the lattice phase-separates.
|J| is set for T_c = 500 K (kT_c = 6.354 |J|).
Bars: p_rung1 ≤ 0.01; the cold state clusters (nearest-neighbour Warren–Cowley α₁ > 0). T is reported,
not gated: the size factor r was calibrated on ordering, and a conserved order parameter may shift it.
Prediction: both bars hold, with T within 15 % of 500 K. ~1 core-hour.
Results
EXPERIMENTS.md · line 17417
E248 RESULT (2026-09-27 23:00).runs/e248/: the clustering Ising (exact T_c 500 K), seeds 6 and 7, read under E247.
Bar 1 holds: p_rung1 = 0.000. Rung 1 does not pass a decomposing alloy.
Bar 2 holds: the cold state clusters, with nearest-neighbour α₁ = +0.667 on both seeds (like
neighbours; ordering would read negative).
The prediction is falsified. The heat-capacity peak sits at 332 K, which reads as 349 ± 16 K after
the ordering-calibrated factor 0.95. That is 30 % below the exact 500 K, and the feature is broad
(FWHM/T 0.66), so the verdict is "not established" rather than a sharp transition. At fixed 50/50
composition on a periodic 432-site cell, separation means building interfaces, and the peak comes
broad and low. The size factor calibrated on ordering does not carry over.
Consequence. The pass rule is "below 90 K". A decomposing alloy read 30 % low could pass: a true
separation at about 120 K would read as about 84 K. That is a possible false pass, and exactly the
failure the review asked about.
The full record
This entry is written in 3 separate places in the log, shown here in log order.
EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 17327–17333
E248–E255 — the review's experiments: one per open question, parameters fixed (registered 2026-09-27 22:50)
The external review (Jan, 2026-09-26) asked questions that could show the ladder is wrong. The ones not
already answered become these eight experiments, run one at a time in this order. Each gets its own
entry, with bars, before it runs; the parameters and predictions below are fixed now. Already settled:
R0 is a ranking (J1–J2); the Mo–Ta reference is corrected (J5); the requirement is one disordered phase
(J14, E247).
EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 17335–17343
E248 — Can rung 1 see decomposition, not only ordering? (J2: "two bcc solutions with different
compositions"; rung 1 has only ever been tested on ordering.)
Model: exact bcc Ising, 50/50, with J < 0, so like neighbours attract and the lattice phase-separates.
|J| is set for T_c = 500 K (kT_c = 6.354 |J|).
Bars: p_rung1 ≤ 0.01; the cold state clusters (nearest-neighbour Warren–Cowley α₁ > 0). T is reported,
not gated: the size factor r was calibrated on ordering, and a conserved order parameter may shift it.
Prediction: both bars hold, with T within 15 % of 500 K. ~1 core-hour.
EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 17417–17429
E248 RESULT (2026-09-27 23:00).runs/e248/: the clustering Ising (exact T_c 500 K), seeds 6 and 7, read under E247.
Bar 1 holds: p_rung1 = 0.000. Rung 1 does not pass a decomposing alloy.
Bar 2 holds: the cold state clusters, with nearest-neighbour α₁ = +0.667 on both seeds (like
neighbours; ordering would read negative).
The prediction is falsified. The heat-capacity peak sits at 332 K, which reads as 349 ± 16 K after
the ordering-calibrated factor 0.95. That is 30 % below the exact 500 K, and the feature is broad
(FWHM/T 0.66), so the verdict is "not established" rather than a sharp transition. At fixed 50/50
composition on a periodic 432-site cell, separation means building interfaces, and the peak comes
broad and low. The size factor calibrated on ordering does not carry over.
Consequence. The pass rule is "below 90 K". A decomposing alloy read 30 % low could pass: a true
separation at about 120 K would read as about 84 K. That is a possible false pass, and exactly the
failure the review asked about.
Related entries
E255 — E248–E255 — the review's experiments: one per open question, parameters fixed (registered…
E247 — the requirement is one disordered phase: rung 1's pass rule changes (pre-registered…
E245c — more sampling: 300 + 1000 sweeps per temperature (pre-registered 2026-09-24 10:54)