Experiments · E248b

Could that low reading let a separation just above 90 K pass?

No, not at 150 or 120 K, but only because the broad-feature rule caught it; the reading itself dropped below 90 K. Separation reads at 0.67 of its true temperature.

In the log: does rung 1 falsely pass a separation just above 90 K? (pre-registered 2026-09-27 23:00)

falsifiedDate 2026-09-27 23:00, as written in the logrung 1 · ordering0 predictions · 1 result paragraphEXPERIMENTS.md lines 17431–17439, lines 17441–17454

Pre-registration

The pre-registration, as written

E248b — does rung 1 falsely pass a separation just above 90 K? (pre-registered 2026-09-27 23:00)

The same clustering Ising and protocol as E248, at exact T_c = 150 K and 120 K.

  • Bar, both: p_rung1 ≤ 0.1. A separating alloy must never pass.
  • Prediction (from E248's 0.70 read factor): 150 K reads about 105 K and fails; 120 K reads about 84 K and falsely passes (p > 0.5).
  • If 120 K passes, rung 1's reading gets a clustering rule, pre-registered before use: when the cold state clusters (α₁ > 0), the size factor is the one measured here (peak/T_c for separation), not the ordering one.

Results

EXPERIMENTS.md · line 17441

E248b RESULT (2026-09-27 23:09). Same protocol, runs/e248/:

exact T_c peak read T (÷0.95) peak/T_c p_rung1 verdict
500 K 332 K 349 K 0.664 0.000 not established: broad (FWHM/T 0.66)
150 K 96 K 101 K 0.640 0.000 not established: broad (0.71)
120 K 84 K 88 K 0.700 0.000 not established: broad (0.62)
  • The bar holds at both temperatures (p ≤ 0.1): no false pass.
  • The prediction is falsified. 120 K did not pass, but only because the broad-feature rule caught it: the peak's upper half-width still reaches 90 K. The reading itself was below 90 K.
  • The read factor for separation is 0.67 ± 0.03 (three temperatures), not ordering's 0.95 ± 0.03.
  • The gap is real but narrow. A separation at about 95 K would peak near 64 K, its upper half-width would end near 88 K, short of the window, and it would pass. That would be a false pass inside the window.

The full record

This entry is written in 2 separate places in the log, shown here in log order.

EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 17431–17439

E248b — does rung 1 falsely pass a separation just above 90 K? (pre-registered 2026-09-27 23:00)

The same clustering Ising and protocol as E248, at exact T_c = 150 K and 120 K.

  • Bar, both: p_rung1 ≤ 0.1. A separating alloy must never pass.
  • Prediction (from E248's 0.70 read factor): 150 K reads about 105 K and fails; 120 K reads about 84 K and falsely passes (p > 0.5).
  • If 120 K passes, rung 1's reading gets a clustering rule, pre-registered before use: when the cold state clusters (α₁ > 0), the size factor is the one measured here (peak/T_c for separation), not the ordering one.
EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 17441–17454

E248b RESULT (2026-09-27 23:09). Same protocol, runs/e248/:

exact T_c peak read T (÷0.95) peak/T_c p_rung1 verdict
500 K 332 K 349 K 0.664 0.000 not established: broad (FWHM/T 0.66)
150 K 96 K 101 K 0.640 0.000 not established: broad (0.71)
120 K 84 K 88 K 0.700 0.000 not established: broad (0.62)
  • The bar holds at both temperatures (p ≤ 0.1): no false pass.
  • The prediction is falsified. 120 K did not pass, but only because the broad-feature rule caught it: the peak's upper half-width still reaches 90 K. The reading itself was below 90 K.
  • The read factor for separation is 0.67 ± 0.03 (three temperatures), not ordering's 0.95 ± 0.03.
  • The gap is real but narrow. A separation at about 95 K would peak near 64 K, its upper half-width would end near 88 K, short of the window, and it would pass. That would be a false pass inside the window.

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