the prediction text was not separated out; see the pre-registration below
falsifiedthe Mo–Ta-rich finds do not order higher under …
(3)
the prediction text was not separated out; see the pre-registration below
confirmedthe top-p pick changed (Mo₄₂Ta₂₉Ti₂₉ 0 …
The pre-registration, as written
E240 — E223's finds re-walked on the corrected ladder (E236 redone; pre-registered 2026-09-23 17:2x)
E236's design, now runnable: all 32 walked finds, walk_finds.py --top lattice, E223's
environment, rung-1 grid 2600 → 100 K plus 80 and 60 K, the floor rule, and rung 0 AND rung 1 on
Results
EXPERIMENTS.md · line 16271
E240 RESULT (22:0x) — and two defects in rung 1's floor handling, caught before any DFT. All 32 finds
walked (E237's e6 ensemble, exact evaluator, grid to 60 K). Checking the E241 survivor's curve before
spending A100 time exposed (i) the floor rule read only the energy-slope channel: five finds whose
slope maximum sat at the 60 K floor had the FLUCTUATION channel peaking inside the window (331, 353,
364, 380, 575 K) — in equilibrium both channels are the heat capacity, so a slope maximum at the floor
is relaxation, and those five order; and (ii) the lattice rung scored every floor pass as
"censored" while the headline p kept rung 1's floor value, so rung 2's decomposition drive never
reached them (Mo₇₉Hf₁₉, Mo₇₀Hf₂₀Ti₁₀ kept p 0.78 with MACE drives of +61 and +35 meV/atom). Both
fixed in forager/ladder/verifier.py with tests; E240's saved results re-scored through the fixed
code without re-sampling (scripts/validate/e240_rescore.py → runs/e240_rescored/): 18 of 32 p
values change; 11 finds pass (p 0.50–0.77, both channels silent to 60 K, rung 2 stable). The original
survivor pick (Mo₅₂W₂₅Ta₂₂) was one of the five and is void. (1) CONFIRMED — 24/24 of E223's
no-verdict finds carry a verdict. (2) FALSIFIED — the Mo–Ta-rich finds do not order higher under
e6: Mo₄₂Ta₂₉Ti₂₉ 896 → 795 K, Mo₄₈W₂₉Ta₁₂Nb₈ 424 → 211 K, Mo₅₄Ta₁₆W₁₃Ti₇Hf₅ 569 → 626 K, although
e6 binds B2 Mo–Ta ~35 meV/atom deeper — so e6's rung 1 gets a known-answer check (E242 (4)).
(3) CONFIRMED — the top-p pick changed (Mo₄₂Ta₂₉Ti₂₉ 0.57 → Mo₅₉Ti₃₀W₁₁ 0.77).
The full record
This entry is written in 2 separate places in the log, shown here in log order.
EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 16186–16189
E240 — E223's finds re-walked on the corrected ladder (E236 redone; pre-registered 2026-09-23 17:2x)
E236's design, now runnable: all 32 walked finds, walk_finds.py --top lattice, E223's
environment, rung-1 grid 2600 → 100 K plus 80 and 60 K, the floor rule, and rung 0 AND rung 1 on
EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 16271–16286
E240 RESULT (22:0x) — and two defects in rung 1's floor handling, caught before any DFT. All 32 finds
walked (E237's e6 ensemble, exact evaluator, grid to 60 K). Checking the E241 survivor's curve before
spending A100 time exposed (i) the floor rule read only the energy-slope channel: five finds whose
slope maximum sat at the 60 K floor had the FLUCTUATION channel peaking inside the window (331, 353,
364, 380, 575 K) — in equilibrium both channels are the heat capacity, so a slope maximum at the floor
is relaxation, and those five order; and (ii) the lattice rung scored every floor pass as
"censored" while the headline p kept rung 1's floor value, so rung 2's decomposition drive never
reached them (Mo₇₉Hf₁₉, Mo₇₀Hf₂₀Ti₁₀ kept p 0.78 with MACE drives of +61 and +35 meV/atom). Both
fixed in forager/ladder/verifier.py with tests; E240's saved results re-scored through the fixed
code without re-sampling (scripts/validate/e240_rescore.py → runs/e240_rescored/): 18 of 32 p
values change; 11 finds pass (p 0.50–0.77, both channels silent to 60 K, rung 2 stable). The original
survivor pick (Mo₅₂W₂₅Ta₂₂) was one of the five and is void. (1) CONFIRMED — 24/24 of E223's
no-verdict finds carry a verdict. (2) FALSIFIED — the Mo–Ta-rich finds do not order higher under
e6: Mo₄₂Ta₂₉Ti₂₉ 896 → 795 K, Mo₄₈W₂₉Ta₁₂Nb₈ 424 → 211 K, Mo₅₄Ta₁₆W₁₃Ti₇Hf₅ 569 → 626 K, although
e6 binds B2 Mo–Ta ~35 meV/atom deeper — so e6's rung 1 gets a known-answer check (E242 (4)).
(3) CONFIRMED — the top-p pick changed (Mo₄₂Ta₂₉Ti₂₉ 0.57 → Mo₅₉Ti₃₀W₁₁ 0.77).
Related entries
E223 — the first search walked up the corrected ladder, pre-registered (2026-09-22 04:2x; chain…
E236 — E223's finds re-walked on the corrected ladder (pre-registered 2026-09-23 11:3x)
E237 — the smallest embedding that holds Mo–Ta (pre-registered 2026-09-23 12:3x)
E241 — pick the DFT survivor by agreement across independent models (pre-registered 2026-09-23…
E242 — the survivor at DFT: does Mo₅₁Ti₃₈W₃Ta₃ order? (pre-registered 2026-09-23 22:0x)