Once the search is paid by the new energy model, does it rank its finds?
Yes. Finds now spread over 60 meV/atom instead of all scoring about −11; one depth bar was narrowly missed (68% and 79% against 80%).
In the log: the search on the non-flat reward (2026-09-18 16:29; operator: icet retired from the reward)
mixedDate 2026-09-18 16:29, as written in the logrung 4 · DFT0 predictions · 1 result paragraphEXPERIMENTS.md lines 12151–12167, lines 12213–12218, lines 12220–12235
What E193 did and how it came out, drawn from this record and the files it names (book/assets/diagrams/exp/E193.svg).
Pre-registration
The pre-registration, as written
E193 — the search on the non-flat reward (2026-09-18 16:29; operator: icet retired from the reward)
FORAGER_RUNG0=ece: the search is paid from v5's formation energy over 8 random 54-atom
decorations in the DFT frame (drive = E_form − T·S_mix against the bcc pure elements; sigma
= decoration spread ⊕ 10 meV); the MACE hull is a veto that fires only beyond 100 meV
(its own measured error); everything else — kinetics, the icet ordering estimate, confirm —
is unchanged. In-process predictor, 0.1–0.5 s per composition (E187 scan showed the old
reward flat at ≈ −11 for every find). Checked on three known cells through the real build:
Mo₀.₅Ta₀.₅ −76.1 (DFT −89.8), Mo₂₄Ti₁₀W₂₀ −81.1 (E187 pending), Hf₁₄Zr₁₃Ti₈Nb₁₁Ta₈ +77.9 →
p = 0 (DFT +89.7). Head: E171b's, MPS, 200 × 4 × 2, tag e193.
Predictions. 1. The finds are ranked: the spread of e_form_ece across a seed's
finds is > 20 meV/atom (under the flat reward every find sat within ±1 of −11). 2. The
finds move: ≥ 80% of finds have E_form(v5) ≤ −60 meV/atom and < 10% carry Hf+Zr+Ti >
0.4 (the flat reward promoted such cells; v5 pays them nothing). 3. AUC_Q and find counts
are not comparable to E171b/E189 — the verdict changed — and are recorded, not scored.
4. The flywheel check that matters: the best find by v5 goes to DFT (E194) and lands within
15 meV/atom of its v5 value, as the last six cells did.
E193 interim (17:10) — the search on the v5 reward ran; its finds dump did not. MPS,
2 seeds: AUC_Q 24.1 / 30.5 (27.27 ± 3.21), finds 61 / 77, best −98 meV/atom (v5 frame) —
prediction 3 (not comparable to the flat-reward arms) recorded as such. Predictions 1–2
(ranking spread and composition shift) need the finds by composition; the winners_by_seed
field in the tagged results file is empty for both seeds — a defect in the dump path, being
traced; if the finds cannot be recovered from this run it is re-run (17 min per seed).
Results
EXPERIMENTS.md · line 12220
E193 result (18:00) — the reward ranks; the finds move. Re-run (finds dumped): AUC_Q
24.1 / 30.5, finds 61 / 77 (85 / 130 raw winners), best −98 (v5 frame). v5 energies of the
finds (recomputed post hoc — the run's screen values were not carried through verify();
fixed):
Prediction 1 confirmed: spread of E_form across a seed's finds 62.7 / 60.0 meV/atom
(range −96 to −34) against ±1 under the flat reward. The search can now tell good from
better.
Prediction 2, split: Hf+Zr+Ti > 0.4 among finds 7% / 2% (bar < 10% ✓); finds with
E_form ≤ −60: 68% / 79% against my bar of 80% — missed on both seeds by a small margin.
The bar was mine, not the ladder's: the qualifying line is a −40 meV drive at 90 K, and
finds between −34 and −60 are legitimate under it. Recorded as a miss of the stated bar.
Prediction 3: not comparable to flat-reward arms — recorded, not scored.
The four best finds by v5 (runs/e193_top_finds.json): Mo₀.₆₂Ti₀.₃₄Nb₀.₀₄ (−96.2 ± 5.8),
Mo₀.₆₄Nb₀.₃₃ (−96.1), Mo₀.₆₅Ta₀.₂₂Ti₀.₁₃ (−96.0), Mo₀.₆₈Nb₀.₃₃ (−95.6): Mo-rich binaries
and ternaries on the Mo–Ti / Mo–Nb / Mo–Ta edges — new territory against the Mo–Ta
basin the flat reward circled.
The full record
This entry is written in 3 separate places in the log, shown here in log order.
EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 12151–12167
E193 — the search on the non-flat reward (2026-09-18 16:29; operator: icet retired from the reward)
FORAGER_RUNG0=ece: the search is paid from v5's formation energy over 8 random 54-atom
decorations in the DFT frame (drive = E_form − T·S_mix against the bcc pure elements; sigma
= decoration spread ⊕ 10 meV); the MACE hull is a veto that fires only beyond 100 meV
(its own measured error); everything else — kinetics, the icet ordering estimate, confirm —
is unchanged. In-process predictor, 0.1–0.5 s per composition (E187 scan showed the old
reward flat at ≈ −11 for every find). Checked on three known cells through the real build:
Mo₀.₅Ta₀.₅ −76.1 (DFT −89.8), Mo₂₄Ti₁₀W₂₀ −81.1 (E187 pending), Hf₁₄Zr₁₃Ti₈Nb₁₁Ta₈ +77.9 →
p = 0 (DFT +89.7). Head: E171b's, MPS, 200 × 4 × 2, tag e193.
Predictions. 1. The finds are ranked: the spread of e_form_ece across a seed's
finds is > 20 meV/atom (under the flat reward every find sat within ±1 of −11). 2. The
finds move: ≥ 80% of finds have E_form(v5) ≤ −60 meV/atom and < 10% carry Hf+Zr+Ti >
0.4 (the flat reward promoted such cells; v5 pays them nothing). 3. AUC_Q and find counts
are not comparable to E171b/E189 — the verdict changed — and are recorded, not scored.
4. The flywheel check that matters: the best find by v5 goes to DFT (E194) and lands within
15 meV/atom of its v5 value, as the last six cells did.
EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 12213–12218
E193 interim (17:10) — the search on the v5 reward ran; its finds dump did not. MPS,
2 seeds: AUC_Q 24.1 / 30.5 (27.27 ± 3.21), finds 61 / 77, best −98 meV/atom (v5 frame) —
prediction 3 (not comparable to the flat-reward arms) recorded as such. Predictions 1–2
(ranking spread and composition shift) need the finds by composition; the winners_by_seed
field in the tagged results file is empty for both seeds — a defect in the dump path, being
traced; if the finds cannot be recovered from this run it is re-run (17 min per seed).
EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 12220–12235
E193 result (18:00) — the reward ranks; the finds move. Re-run (finds dumped): AUC_Q
24.1 / 30.5, finds 61 / 77 (85 / 130 raw winners), best −98 (v5 frame). v5 energies of the
finds (recomputed post hoc — the run's screen values were not carried through verify();
fixed):
Prediction 1 confirmed: spread of E_form across a seed's finds 62.7 / 60.0 meV/atom
(range −96 to −34) against ±1 under the flat reward. The search can now tell good from
better.
Prediction 2, split: Hf+Zr+Ti > 0.4 among finds 7% / 2% (bar < 10% ✓); finds with
E_form ≤ −60: 68% / 79% against my bar of 80% — missed on both seeds by a small margin.
The bar was mine, not the ladder's: the qualifying line is a −40 meV drive at 90 K, and
finds between −34 and −60 are legitimate under it. Recorded as a miss of the stated bar.
Prediction 3: not comparable to flat-reward arms — recorded, not scored.
The four best finds by v5 (runs/e193_top_finds.json): Mo₀.₆₂Ti₀.₃₄Nb₀.₀₄ (−96.2 ± 5.8),
Mo₀.₆₄Nb₀.₃₃ (−96.1), Mo₀.₆₅Ta₀.₂₂Ti₀.₁₃ (−96.0), Mo₀.₆₈Nb₀.₃₃ (−95.6): Mo-rich binaries
and ternaries on the Mo–Ti / Mo–Nb / Mo–Ta edges — new territory against the Mo–Ta
basin the flat reward circled.
Related entries
E187 — the fourth flywheel cell, chosen where the rungs disagree most