Experiments · E178

Did the navigation-centre learning site, rather than the extra propagation step, lift the score?

No. At two seeds the run without the site (34.77) fell between both bars; a third seed later matched the site's run exactly.

In the log: the steps-4 control: is it the fan-shaped body or the fourth step?

recordedDate not stated in the log; it was written between the commit of 2026-09-16 19:06 and the first commit that contains it, 2026-09-19 08:35unclassified0 predictions · 1 result paragraphEXPERIMENTS.md lines 11416–11426, lines 11619–11634
exp E178 diagram
What E178 did and how it came out, drawn from this record and the files it names (book/assets/diagrams/exp/E178.svg).

Pre-registration

The pre-registration, as written

E178 — the steps-4 control: is it the fan-shaped body or the fourth step?

E171b's protocol with FORAGER_SITES=oa,5ht (no FB site; PFL not added to the readout), FORAGER_STEPS=4, modulation on, tag e178, 200 × 4 × 2, into the free search slot. Predictions.

  1. If the FB site carries it: E178 mean AUC_Q ≤ 32 (E170's level or below) and finds ≤ 72 — the fourth step alone buys nothing beyond heterogeneity.
  2. If the fourth step carries it: E178 ≥ 36 with finds ≥ 78 — then "the central complex learns" is withdrawn as the reading of E171b, and what the fourth step changed (deeper propagation to the readout's LAL/DN inputs) is the next thing to measure.
  3. Between 32 and 36: undecidable at two seeds; a third seed on both arms before any claim.

Results

EXPERIMENTS.md · line 11619

E178 result — undecidable at two seeds, as the third prediction allowed for. Steps = 4, no FB site, otherwise E171b: AUC_Q 34.77 ± 4.28, 74 ± 10 finds, −136.

arm                                   AUC_Q            finds
E170  steps 3 (shuffled gains)        31.54 +- 18.81   68 +- 24
E178  steps 4, no FB site             34.77 +-  4.28   74 +- 10
E171b steps 4, FB site                39.96 +-  7.06   82 +-  1

Neither bar was crossed (≤ 32 → FB; ≥ 36 → fourth step). The fourth step alone accounts for most of the move above E170; the FB site's share is ≤ 5 AUC_Q and ≤ 8 finds, inside the seeds' spread. "The central complex learns" is not supported at two seeds — not refuted either. Branch as written: a third seed on both arms (seed offset 2), chained after E173c. Predictions for the replications: E171b seed 2 in [33, 47] and E178 seed 2 in [30, 39] (each arm's own pair, ±1 sd widened to the pair's range); if E171b's third seed is below E178's, the FB claim is withdrawn outright; if all three E171b seeds exceed all three E178 seeds, the ≤ 5 AUC_Q effect is real and small — worth stating, not headlining.

The full record

This entry is written in 2 separate places in the log, shown here in log order.

EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 11416–11426

E178 — the steps-4 control: is it the fan-shaped body or the fourth step?

E171b's protocol with FORAGER_SITES=oa,5ht (no FB site; PFL not added to the readout), FORAGER_STEPS=4, modulation on, tag e178, 200 × 4 × 2, into the free search slot. Predictions.

  1. If the FB site carries it: E178 mean AUC_Q ≤ 32 (E170's level or below) and finds ≤ 72 — the fourth step alone buys nothing beyond heterogeneity.
  2. If the fourth step carries it: E178 ≥ 36 with finds ≥ 78 — then "the central complex learns" is withdrawn as the reading of E171b, and what the fourth step changed (deeper propagation to the readout's LAL/DN inputs) is the next thing to measure.
  3. Between 32 and 36: undecidable at two seeds; a third seed on both arms before any claim.
EXPERIMENTS.md · lines 11619–11634

E178 result — undecidable at two seeds, as the third prediction allowed for. Steps = 4, no FB site, otherwise E171b: AUC_Q 34.77 ± 4.28, 74 ± 10 finds, −136.

arm                                   AUC_Q            finds
E170  steps 3 (shuffled gains)        31.54 +- 18.81   68 +- 24
E178  steps 4, no FB site             34.77 +-  4.28   74 +- 10
E171b steps 4, FB site                39.96 +-  7.06   82 +-  1

Neither bar was crossed (≤ 32 → FB; ≥ 36 → fourth step). The fourth step alone accounts for most of the move above E170; the FB site's share is ≤ 5 AUC_Q and ≤ 8 finds, inside the seeds' spread. "The central complex learns" is not supported at two seeds — not refuted either. Branch as written: a third seed on both arms (seed offset 2), chained after E173c. Predictions for the replications: E171b seed 2 in [33, 47] and E178 seed 2 in [30, 39] (each arm's own pair, ±1 sd widened to the pair's range); if E171b's third seed is below E178's, the FB claim is withdrawn outright; if all three E171b seeds exceed all three E178 seeds, the ≤ 5 AUC_Q effect is real and small — worth stating, not headlining.

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